How about that hotbed of progressive socialism, the Pentagon?

'Pentagon officials are wary of sounding such an optimistic note, particularly on "political progress." In fact, they say more difficult times are ahead.

At the Heritage Foundation, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle Eastern Affairs Mark Kimmitt said 2008 will be "far more difficult" than 2007 for the U.S. strategy because "it depends far more on the Iraqis themselves to show progress on key legislation, on their economy, and reconciliation." Kimmitt predicted only a mild chance that "surge" security gains will last:

    "2008 and beyond will be a success, the surge will be a success, if the gains in security can be translated into gains in stability...if I had to put a number to it, maybe it's three in 10, maybe it's 50-50, if we play our cards right." '

Fifty-fifty, maybe three in ten. Those don't sound like betting odds to me. You?

And before you point out that that's a bit bleak....I'm afraid you are sadly mistaken. The Pentagon's view IS the optimistic viewpoint. Many other observers would put the odds at one in ten, maybe one in twenty.

The key problem is (are?) the so called 'Awakening Councils'.

'The Awakening Council movement has grown to more than 70,000 fighters in Anbar, Baghdad and other Sunni-dominated provinces. U.S. officials have credited the councils, along with the increase in U.S. troops and a cease-fire declared by radical Shiite extremist Muqtada al-Sadr, with a 60 percent reduction in violence in Iraq since June.

The councils primarily consist of Sunni tribal fighters who have turned against al-Qaida in Iraq. Their success is of such concern to al-Qaida, in fact, that they increasingly are targets. A suicide bomber killed at least 12 people in one group on Monday in the town of Mishada outside Baghdad....Also, a new audiotape from al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden surfaced last week, warning Iraq's Sunni Arabs against joining Awakening Councils.

The movement started two years ago in Anbar Province, which is almost entirely Sunni. But now the groups are active in eight provinces, with more than half in Baghdad. The U.S. military is so supportive of the councils, also called Concerned Local Citizens, that as of last month it was paying a monthly salary of $300 to about 65,000 of its members.

Meanwhile, the Shiite-dominated army and police comprise the majority of the 440,000 Iraqi security forces. U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker expressed his concerns in an Associated Press Dec. 23 story, saying the councils weren't envisioned as an independent force. Other analysts express similar concerns about Sunnis needing to get more involved in the political process at all levels.
It's no surprise that tribal sheiks involved with Awakening Councils are speaking out for more political involvement. If that doesn't happen, Awakening Councils might instead decide that U.S. forces no longer are an ally. The situation is tenuous.'